China's copper concentrate imports are expected to increase by 7.8% year-on-year in 2025. How will spot TC for copper concentrate play out in the fourth quarter? [SMM Analysis]

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As September comes to a close, the copper industry is about to welcome the LME London Metal Week and the annual long-term contract negotiations of Chinese smelters. Predictions for China's copper concentrate import volume in the fourth quarter, the trend of spot TC, and the outcomes of long-term contract negotiations have become focal points of market attention. SMM provides possible scenarios for market reference.

Monthly copper concentrate imports in China: Based on the maintenance activities of Chinese smelters in the fourth quarter and the trading situation in the spot market during the third quarter, SMM believes that the average monthly import volume of copper concentrate in China in the fourth quarter of this year will be 2.5733 million physical tons. Ten copper smelters will undergo maintenance in the fourth quarter, involving 1 million tons of crude smelting capacity. The more common scenario in the fourth quarter is that most smelters are not aggressive in their demand for copper concentrate. The likelihood of record-breaking monthly import volumes, as seen in April, is low, and monthly imports are expected to remain within the range of 2.5–2.6 million physical tons. Judging from the spot trading of copper concentrate in the third quarter, some major Chinese players have been active in purchasing spot copper concentrate for shipment in early Q4 and arrival before the end of this year. Therefore, China's copper concentrate imports in the fourth quarter may slightly exceed the monthly average for the year. SMM predicts that China's copper concentrate imports will reach 30–30.5 million physical tons in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.8% (equivalent to 7.5–7.625 million metal tons).

Spot/long-term TC trend: Chinese copper smelters have demonstrated resilience in this year's copper concentrate spot market. The SMM copper concentrate spot TC index has still not broken through the -$45 mark this year, and recent spot tenders from mines and smelters show signs of improvement. Ahead of the upcoming year-end negotiations, SMM believes that Chinese smelters will continue to maintain the momentum of spot TC recovery to secure a more favorable outcome in the negotiations. Therefore, SMM expects spot TC to remain in the range of -$40 to -$45 during this period. After the long-term contract negotiations, Chinese smelters may increase spot purchases to prepare for winter storage and Spring Festival production. Additionally, some major players have already begun seeking spot copper concentrate for shipment in December this year and arrival in February or March next year. At that time, spot TC may remain in the range of -$45 to -$50. SMM's latest global copper concentrate sulfide supply-demand balance results show a deficit of 224,000 metal tons in 2025. Furthermore, given that the mid-year negotiation result was $0/dry ton, it may be difficult for the year-end negotiation result to exceed the mid-year outcome.